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What happened

On the weekend, Taiwan elected a new president and a new parliament. Lai Ching-te of the currently ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency. The results of the parliamentary election are less clear-cut, with the DPP losing its parliamentary majority. The DPP traditionally stands for a political course that distances Taiwan more strongly from China and its representatives in the past have also occasionally called for formal Taiwanese independence.

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Why it matters

The elections obviously first and foremost matter for Taiwan and its future political course, both domestically and internationally.

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At the same time, the elections have an international impact. The status of Taiwan is a bone of contention not only between China and Taiwan but also between China and the United States. China regards Taiwan as one of its provinces and a part of the People’s Republic of China. The US, while not diplomatically recognising Taiwan, has maintained informal relations with it and is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with “sufficient self-defense capacity”. These arrangements turn Taiwan’s status and politics into a geopolitical issue and underline the importance of elections on the island.

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What to take away

There are three main take-aways from the presidential elections in Taiwan. Let’s state the obvious first.

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The outcome of the elections does obviously have an impact on Taiwan’s relations with China and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. After his election, president-elect Lai already indicated that he wants to pursue a policy of maintaining the status quo while not giving in to threats from China. However, the DPP has historically always been more strongly in favour of distancing Taiwan from China – compared to the other major party, the Guomindang, who stands for more engagement with China. Lai’s election has already elicited a strong reaction from Beijing, who has labelled him a “separatist” and “troublemaker” in the past. The official line from China is that this election result will not stop the trend of an eventual unification of Taiwan with the Mainland. This obviously sends a message to Taiwan, but at the same time, it also reassures a domestic Mainland Chinese audience of Beijing’s official policy line. Considering that foreign policy has increasingly become a legitimation tool for the Chinese Communist Party, playing the domestic game is at least as important as reminding the rest of the world of the official policy line.

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In addition to stark (and expected) rhetoric, Beijing also sent a more hidden, yet at least equally powerful, message to Taiwan and the world. On Monday, the Pacific island nation of Nauru announced that it would shift its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. This leaves Taiwan with only 12 countries worldwide that recognise it diplomatically and the timing of the announcement is certainly telling. While Nauru is obviously a sovereign nation, the timing of the announcement indicates to Taiwan that China has a lot of strings it can pull on to make things even more difficult for them if it chooses to.

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Quite separately from this and less obvious is that this election was not only about China. While the parties’ stance on China always impacts on elections in Taiwan, this election was also about domestic politics. Particularly young voters are increasingly concerned about issues that their peers in other countries are concerned about as well: jobs, cost of living and housing. This has led to a situation where Taiwan’s two-party system has been broken up and after this election has to accommodate a third political force: The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). In addition to dealing with this new political player, Taiwan has to try and find answers to these policy issues in order to address the economic concerns of the younger generation and maintain the legitimacy of its democratic institutions.

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Lastly, and directly related, the election results are not as clear-cut as many would like to believe. True, Lai won the presidential election with 40.1% of the votes and a lead of almost seven percent over his opponent Hou Yu-ih of the Guomindang. However, the third candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party, Ko Wen-je, also won a quarter of the overall votes, making this a more contested election than the single focus on Lai’s victory might make it seem. The DPP won the presidency, but the result is a lot less strong than current president Tsai Ying-wen’s in 2020, when she managed to win 57% of votes.

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In addition to the presidential election, Taiwan also elected a new parliament on Sunday. These elections have basically resulted in a hung parliament. The Guomindang managed to win 52 seats, while the DPP now only holds 51 seats and the TPP winning 8 seats. This means that numbers in parliament are tight and it is more challenging for the DPP to push through any sweeping political agenda. It is worth remembering here that Taiwan is not a presidential, but a semi-presidential system, where the premier and not the president appoints the cabinet and runs the day-to-day operations of government. While the president is still an important and powerful figure, parliamentary numbers matter. If the Guomindang and the Taiwan People’s Party choose to, they can make governing for the DPP difficult. In addition to dealing with China, there might be some strong headwinds in Taiwan’s politics in the coming four years. While a hung parliament can result in fruitful political debates and the creation of strong bipartisan consensus on important policy issues, it can also stifle political action and lead to a standstill. Considering the challenges ahead for Taiwan both domestically and internationally, this will be a space to watch closely.

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